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the market environment

21

Annual Report 2014 BME

The IMF has slightly lowered its forecasts

for 2015 and for the years to come

In October, the IMF reviewed its growth estimates and

projections downwards in terms of trade volume and

global GDP for the coming years. The United States

showed the most favourable prospects: its GDP

rose by 2.2% in 2014, half a decimal more than that

projected in April, and it is estimated to stand at 3.1%

in 2015. On the contrary, for the eurozone, annual

increases in the GDP of 0.8% and 1.3% are expected

for 2014 and 2015, respectively, with cutbacks of

nearly three decimals in each year with respect to the

April forecasts. The greatest reductions took place in

Germany (five decimals less than in 2014) and in Italy

which, according to the Fund, will continue in reces-

sion for another year with a drop in the GDP of 0.2%

IMF macroeconomic projections,

(October 2014)

Actual

Projections

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP growth (%)

Global GDP

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.8

Advanced economies

1.2

1.4

1.8

2.3

United States

2.3

2.2

2.2

3.1

Japan

1.5

1.5

0.9

0.8

United Kingdom

0.3

1.7

3.2

2.7

Eurozone

-0.7

-0.4

0.8

1.3

Germany

0.9

0.5

1.4

1.5

Spain

-1.6

-1.2

1.3

1.7

Developing Asian economies

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.6

Emerging market and developing economies

5.1

4.7

4.4

5.0

Latin America and the Caribbean

2.9

2.7

1.3

2.2

China

7.7

7.7

7.4

7.1

India

4.7

5.0

5.6

6.4

TRADE volume (annual %)

2.9

3.0

3.8

5.0

in 2014. Prospects for Brazil have also been reduced

sharply, with an expected growth in the GDP in 2014

which is one percentage down on that expected in

April: 0.3% vis-à-vis 1.3%.

The IMF’s projections reveal a stagnation of the

expected GDP growth rates in the emerging and

developing economies, while they are slightly down

in the advanced economies with a somewhat more

downward slope in the eurozone where Germany

and Italy are the worst hit countries, while Spain,

together with France, boast somewhat more positive

expectations.