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the market environment

23

Annual Report 2014 BME

IMF macroeconomic projections,

(October 2014) (cont.)

Actual

Projections

2012

2013

2014

2015

Public deficit as a % of the GDP

Advanced economies

-5.8

-4.3

-3.9

-3.1

United States

-8.6

-5.8

-5.5

-4.3

Japan

-8.7

-8.2

-7.1

-5.8

United Kingdom

-8.0

-5.8

-5.3

-4.1

Eurozone

-3.7

-3.0

-2.9

-2.5

Germany

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

Spain

-10.6

-7.1

-5.7

-4.7

Gross public debt as a % of the GDP

United States

102.5

104.2

105.6

105.1

Japan

237.3

243.2

245.1

245.5

United Kingdom

89.1

90.6

92.0

93.1

Eurozone

92.9

95.2

96.4

96.1

Germany

81.0

78.4

75.5

72.5

Spain

84.4

92.1

98.1

101.1

The worsening of activity data in Germany

is dragging down the eurozone

In Germany’s case, it seems that the cause of the

reduction in its current and expected economic

growth rates has more to do with the decline in its

vast export markets than with its main economic

balances, all of which are highly positive. In recent

months, data on industrial production, exports and

German investor confidence reveals a weakness, in

line with the virtual zero growth of the GDP in the

third quarter of 2014.

The worsening in European locomotive activity arises

from the increase in the risk that, despite the signif-

icant monetary expansion, the weight of debt and

of the public finances consolidation programmes in

most of the eurozone economies prolong its negative

effects on consumer demand and investment beyond

that expected. Persistent low inflation increases the

perception of this risk which, confronted with the

different moment in the economic and monetary

cycle registered in the United States, has led to a

significant depreciation of the euro with respect to

the dollar in the last six months from levels of 1.40 at

the end of March to the 1.24 mark set by the markets

at the beginning of December.

10th. Foro MedCap Opening Ceremony

Companies meet investors