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the market environment

25

Annual Report 2014 BME

The euro depreciates against the dollar

Past, present and future of global invest-

ment and savings rates

According to IMF data, investment in the eurozone

has fallen by 5 points in the GDP since 2007 until

today (from 23% to 18%), against 3 points in the

whole of the advanced economies and a similar level

to 2007 (25%) in the whole of the world, where the

weight of the emerging and developing economies

(led by China) has been decisive in this period with a

rise of 4 points in their investment rate with respect to

the GDP (from 28% to 32% and nearly 10 points more

than at the beginning of the century). In this time, the

gross national savings rate with respect to the GDP

fell by 2 points in the eurozone (from 24% to 22%),

and in the advanced economies it remained at 25% in

the world and also remained stable at around 32.5%

in the Emerging area. The decline in investment and

savings levels was detained in 2009 in all developed

countries (with the spurt of the United States), but

this was not the case in the eurozone, where there

was from that moment onwards an upturn in savings

but not in the degree of investment which, until this

same year, has not shown signs of recovery.

From 2009 until today, in the United States, there has

been a rally of 2 and 3 points in its relative investment

and savings rates, respectively, while IMF projections

show an additional rise of something more than 2

points in each indicator from now until the end of

the decade. Something similar is occurring with the

world total, although in this case, the contribution

of the Emerging Economies is expected to be only

slightly upwards although from the high rates already

reported. This is not the case in the central nucleus

of the European economy where the forecast is that

investment will increase its weight in the GDP until

2019 by approximately 1 point and the same occurs

with national savings.

1.40

1.35

1.30

1.25

1.20

1.15

2014

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jul

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

11,000

10,500

10,000

9,500

2014

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jul

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

EUR/USD (DW)

Doubts on the IBEX 35® in 2014